Перегляд за Автор "Smiesova V."

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  • Ескіз
    Документ
    Analysing forced migration’s impact on Ukraine’s economic sustainability
    (Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, 2024-10) Strelchenko I.I.; Smiesova V.; Kozhushko S.; Arakelova I.
    Purpose. To characterize consequences of forced migration from Ukraine to European countries, quantifying its impact on economic growth, the number, income of the economically active population, investment and industry of Ukraine, and to develop recommendations for overcoming the negative economic effect of migration. Methodology. The methods of analysis and synthesis, scientific abstraction, statistical analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, and graphical analysis were used. Findings. The article studies the factors that caused forced migration from Ukraine’s to European countries as well as the main differences in migration processes provoked by Russia’s war against Ukraine are substantiated. The economic effects and consequences of its impact on the Ukrainian economy are analyzed. The study is based on statistical data characterizing economic growth (GDP) and the factors that determine it (capital investment, economically active population). On the basis of the Cobb Douglas production function with neutral scientific and technological progress or Hicks scientific and technological progress and the use of linear regression analysis methods, the relationship between changes in the number of economically active population and economic growth is established. Originality. A forecast of changes in GDP under the influence of forced migration of the economically active population of Ukraine in 2023 is calculated and three main scenarios of GDP dynamics are developed in accordance with these forecasts. Each of them envisages a significant drop in output under the influence of migration. Practical value. The article proposes ways to address the problem of forced migration in Ukraine’s economy and the consequences of its negative impact on sustainable development based on the experience of European countries. Ways to restore industry and attract investments to Ukraine are substantiated.
  • Ескіз
    Документ
    Economic security of regions: A methodological approach to assessment, management, and legal regulation
    (REGION The Journal of ERSA Powered by WU, 2022) Ovcharenko O.; Korotka L.; Smiesova V.; Kuchkova O.; Karpenko R.
    At the present stage of development, one of the major problems of regions is ensuring their economic security. This requires the development of effective methodological approaches to assess economic security at the regional level by governing bodies, and the development of directions for regulating economic security at the local and state levels. The purpose of the article is to form methodological tools for assessing the economic security of regions based on the method of fuzzy modeling, to develop approaches to managing the economic security of a region by public authorities and local governments. The article has proposed and analyzed indicators for assessing the economic security of regions. The scientific novelty of the article is the use of fuzzy modeling to assess the economic security of regions. This method, unlike others, allows you to use fuzzy input data in simulation modeling and obtain output data that can be reduced to crisp values using defuzzification methods. The expediency of using fuzzy logic tools to assess economic security at the meso-level has been substantiated. The effectiveness of the practical application of the proposed approach has been tested based on assessing the economic security of the regions in Ukraine. The integral index of economic security has been modelled, together with its components: investment, innovation, financial, foreign economic, demographic, social security, and security of economic activity. For the demonstration of the practical application of the proposed methodological approach, the data of 10 regions of Ukraine has been analyzed and their economic security has been assessed. The directions of economic and legal regulation of the analyzed regions of Ukraine, which are characterized by crisis and low level of economic security and its components, have been offered.