Analysing forced migration’s impact on Ukraine’s economic sustainability
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Дата
2024-10
Назва журналу
Номер ISSN
Назва тому
Видавець
Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu
Анотація
Purpose. To characterize consequences of forced migration from Ukraine to European countries, quantifying its impact on
economic growth, the number, income of the economically active population, investment and industry of Ukraine, and to develop
recommendations for overcoming the negative economic effect of migration.
Methodology. The methods of analysis and synthesis, scientific abstraction, statistical analysis, economic and mathematical
modeling, and graphical analysis were used.
Findings. The article studies the factors that caused forced migration from Ukraine’s to European countries as well as the main
differences in migration processes provoked by Russia’s war against Ukraine are substantiated. The economic effects and consequences of its impact on the Ukrainian economy are analyzed. The study is based on statistical data characterizing economic
growth (GDP) and the factors that determine it (capital investment, economically active population). On the basis of the Cobb
Douglas production function with neutral scientific and technological progress or Hicks scientific and technological progress and
the use of linear regression analysis methods, the relationship between changes in the number of economically active population
and economic growth is established.
Originality. A forecast of changes in GDP under the influence of forced migration of the economically active population of
Ukraine in 2023 is calculated and three main scenarios of GDP dynamics are developed in accordance with these forecasts. Each
of them envisages a significant drop in output under the influence of migration.
Practical value. The article proposes ways to address the problem of forced migration in Ukraine’s economy and the consequences of its negative impact on sustainable development based on the experience of European countries. Ways to restore industry and attract investments to Ukraine are substantiated.
Опис
Ключові слова
Cobb-Douglas production function, forced migration, employment of population, refugees, sustainable development
Бібліографічний опис
https://doi.org/10.33271/nvngu/2024-5/170