МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ЗМІН АКТИВНОСТІ ВІТЧИЗНЯНОГО БІЗНЕСУ ЗА УМОВ ВІЙНИ
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Файли
Дата
2023
Назва журналу
Номер ISSN
Назва тому
Видавець
Університет імені Альфреда Нобеля
Анотація
The article examines the effects of changes in the activity of domestic business during the
war, as a result of the system of unfavorable factors. The authors analyze the possibilities of using
different types of mathematical models to reproduce the dynamics of business activity at the level of
a particular country, and selects the most successful one. A phenomenological model describing the
dynamics of the process was proposed, which uses the business activity index as the main variable and
is based on an ordinary heterogeneous second-order differential equation with a source term. Using a
three-component production function, a transition to a system of differential equations describing the
dynamics of various components of the business activity index was made, which, in the absence of a
source term responsible for the impact of external stimulating factors, is conservative. The modeling
results are compared with empirical data, which indicates a good ability of the model to reproduce real
processes in the economy under the influence of powerful negative factors, including the restoration of
business optimism caused by the return of territories in September-October 2022 and overcoming the
consequences of attacks on energy infrastructure in November 2022-January 2023. It is shown that the
involvement of other equations describing the dynamics of business activity in the system leads to a loss
of conservatism. The frequency and phase-frequency analysis of the dynamics of Ukrainian business
activity during the war allows us to conclude that business activity will recover fairly quickly after the
cessation of negative depressing factors. Based on the descriptive data, the article clusters the negative
factors that suppress domestic business during hostilities and compares them with the parameters that
determine the ease of doing business, an internationally recognized indicator that allows assessing obstacles to business activity. Based on the research of recognized foreign experts, a retrospective
analysis of obstacles to the development of Ukrainian business was conducted. An empirical study of
a number of enterprises from the Dnipropetrovs’k region belonging to various business sectors was
implemented, which proves that the main problems that emerged during the war are not much more
severe than the problems that domestic business experienced before the aggression. The «classical»
factors associated with hostilities are reduced to ensuring uninterrupted supply of electricity and
preventing the outflow of human resources through conscription and forced migration. It is concluded
that an interesting direction for further research on this problem is the use of the Granger model, which
will allow for joint analysis of time series and take into account hidden relationships.
Опис
Ключові слова
martial law, aggression against Ukraine, phenomenological modeling, conservatism of the system of equations, ease of doing business index, UBI business activity index, threecomponent production function
Бібліографічний опис
Момот В.Є., Литвиненко О.М. Моделювання змін активності вітчизняного бізнесу за умов війни // Академічний огляд. – Вип. 2 (59). – 2023. – С. 173-189.