Репозитарій ДУАН :: Перегляд за Автор "Strelchenko I.I."

Перегляд за Автор "Strelchenko I.I."

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Analysing forced migration’s impact on Ukraine’s economic sustainability
(Naukovyi Visnyk Natsionalnoho Hirnychoho Universytetu, 2024-10) Strelchenko I.I.; Smiesova V.; Kozhushko S.; Arakelova I.
Purpose. To characterize consequences of forced migration from Ukraine to European countries, quantifying its impact on economic growth, the number, income of the economically active population, investment and industry of Ukraine, and to develop recommendations for overcoming the negative economic effect of migration. Methodology. The methods of analysis and synthesis, scientific abstraction, statistical analysis, economic and mathematical modeling, and graphical analysis were used. Findings. The article studies the factors that caused forced migration from Ukraine’s to European countries as well as the main differences in migration processes provoked by Russia’s war against Ukraine are substantiated. The economic effects and consequences of its impact on the Ukrainian economy are analyzed. The study is based on statistical data characterizing economic growth (GDP) and the factors that determine it (capital investment, economically active population). On the basis of the Cobb Douglas production function with neutral scientific and technological progress or Hicks scientific and technological progress and the use of linear regression analysis methods, the relationship between changes in the number of economically active population and economic growth is established. Originality. A forecast of changes in GDP under the influence of forced migration of the economically active population of Ukraine in 2023 is calculated and three main scenarios of GDP dynamics are developed in accordance with these forecasts. Each of them envisages a significant drop in output under the influence of migration. Practical value. The article proposes ways to address the problem of forced migration in Ukraine’s economy and the consequences of its negative impact on sustainable development based on the experience of European countries. Ways to restore industry and attract investments to Ukraine are substantiated.
Changes in the Political Discourse of Eastern European Countries in the Context of the Migration Crisis and Combating Human Rights Violations
(Pakistan Journal of Criminology, 2024-06) Strelchenko I.I.; Durdynets M.; Poda T.; Kostetska L.; Svoboda I.
The aim of the study is the analysis of changes in political discourse in the Eastern European countries during the migration crisis and its impact on political decisions. A mixed approach, combining graphic methods, comparative methods, sociological method and content analysis of studies and political texts, was used. The results of the study indicate significant changes in the political discourse during the migration crisis, which are characterized by the formulation of migration as a security threat, the prioritization of national identity, and the rise of populism. The political leaders‘ favour of anti-immigration sentiments reflects the influence of public opinion on policy decisions, while the media have played a key role in strengthening the securitized discourse. The study determines the impact of these changes in discourse on policy decisions, including the adoption of restrictive immigration measures and their consequences for European integration, democratic values, socio-cultural dynamics, and security.
Cluster analysis of the impact of currency regime type on features of the spread of financial crises
(Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, 2018) Strelchenko I.I.
The paper presents the results of research on the impact of currency regime type on features of the spread of financial crises. The focus is on constructing a neural network to identify groups of countries exhibiting similar behaviour in the dynamics of the index of flexibility in the effective exchange rate, exchange market pressure and external public debt markets in times of sudden changes in the enviroment. The alpha-criterion for optimality constructed in this way is based on the use of a concordance coefficient. The result of modelling is a self-organization map with a hidden layer consisting of six clusters. This cluster structure allows us to analyse the relationship between the type of currency regime and the consequences of the global crisis in 2007–2009 for the domestic financial markets of the investigated countries. It is found that the result of the division is significantly influenced by the proximity of administrative boundaries and historically predetermined close trade and economic channels of interaction between economies. The results obtained can be used to formulate directions in the currency policies of developing countries, including Ukraine.
Cluster analysis of the impact of currency regime type on features of the spread of financial crises.
(Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, 2018) Strelchenko I.I.
The paper presents the results of research on the impact of currency regime type on features of the spread of financial crises. The focus is on constructing a neural network to identify groups of countries exhibiting similar behaviour in the dynamics of the index of flexibility in the effective exchange rate, exchange market pressure and external public debt markets in times of sudden changes in the environment. The alpha-criterion for optimality constructed in this way is based on the use of a concordance coefficient. The result of modelling is a self-organization map with a hidden layer consisting of six clusters. This cluster structure allows us to analyse the relationship between the type of currency regime and the consequences of the global crisis in 2007–2009 for the domestic financial markets of the investigated countries. It is found that the result of the division is significantly influenced by the proximity of administrative boundaries and historically predetermined close trade and economic channels of interaction between economies. The results obtained can be used to formulate directions in the currency policies of developing countries, including Ukraine.
Metallurgical industry of Ukraine in the context of sustainable competitiveness and post-war reconstruction
(Економічний аналіз, 2024-12) Strelchenko I.I.; Strelchenko A.A.
Introduction. Ukraine's steel industry has always been one of the country's main economic sectors, making a significant contribution to the country's GDP and generating up to 30% of export earnings. Its strategic importance is reinforced by the dependence of the regions on the operation of metallurgical enterprises. However, the war has had a significant impact on the sector, causing a decline in production capacity, destruction of critical infrastructure, and restricted access to international markets. This poses a unique challenge to preserve the industry, adapt it to current conditions and further integrate it into the European economy. Purpose. The purpose of the article is to study the impact of military operations on the metallurgical industry of Ukraine, to identify the main challenges and opportunities for its sustainable recovery. Particular attention is paid to the analysis of ways to adapt enterprises to modern realities, prospects for integration into European markets and the introduction of environmentally friendly technologies into the production process. An important aspect is also the assessment of the socio-economic impact of metallurgy on the regions that depend on this industry. Method (methodology). To achieve this goal, a comprehensive approach was used, including the analysis of statistical data on steel, iron and rolled products, collected from the official reports of Ukrmetallurgprom and the World Steel Association. Comparative analysis methods were used to assess changes in the structure of exports and production volumes, as well as expert assessments of the impact of EU environmental standards on the industry.
Neuromodelling of financial and economic security of the region
(Scientific bulletin of Polissia, 2018-02) Strelchenko I.I.; Komirna V. V.; Arakelova I. O.
Актуальність теми дослідження. У світлі зміни системи глобальної світової безпеки, гостро постає проблема адекватної оцінки економічної безпеки в регіональному розрізі. Існуючі методики передбачають розрахунок комплексного показника або системи показників для оцінки економічної безпеки. Натомість реалії сьогодення вимагають перегляду концептуального підходу до визначення поняття «економічна безпека», що врахує вплив процесів взаємопроникнення та інтеграції економічних систем окремих регіонів. Постановка проблеми. Постає задача пошуку та тестування нових методів щодо оцінки економічної безпеки регіонів. Аналіз останніх досліджень і публікацій. Проблематиці кількісної та якісної оцінки економічної безпеки країни присвячена значна кількість досліджень. Класичний підхід до оцінки економічної безпеки передбачає обчислення інтегрального індексу та не враховує інтеграцію окремих регіонів та країни в цілому у світові ринки. Виділення недосліджених частин загальної проблеми. Необхідність зміни кута зору на проблематику моніторингу регіональної економічної безпеки виникла у зв’язку з: збільшенням масштабів та пришвидшенням процесів глобалізації; складною геополітичною ситуацією в середині країни. Постановка завдання. Метою даного дослідження є теоретична оцінка можливості поєднання індикативного підходу та положень теорії відкритих систем до оцінки рівня економічної безпеки регіону. Викладення основного матеріалу. В роботі розроблено алгоритм використання апарату теорії нейронних мереж для оцінки економічної системи регіонів. Отримана економіко-математична модель дозволяє виконувати кластеризацію територіальних одиниць за обраними індикаторами економічної безпеки. Тестування розробленого алгоритму проведено на основі даних про стан економічного розвитку регіонів України. Висновки. Результатом моделювання стала кластерна структура, що розподілила сукупність регіонів України на чотири кластери відповідно до відібраних класифікаційних характеристик. Отримані результати мають чітку економічну інтерпретацію.
Simulation of the crisis contagion process between countries with different levels of socio-economic development
(CEUR Workshop Proceedings, 2019) Strelchenko I.I.; Matviychuk A.; Vashchaiev S.; Velykoivanenko H.
The paper contains a detailed analysis of the occurrence and contagion of crisis phenomena in countries with different levels of economic development. As part of the study, a correlation analysis of classification characteristics was carried out for the preliminary division of countries into classes. The usage of neural networks tools for the mathematical modelling of the processes of transboundary contagion of crisis is substantiated. A general scheme of the system of models of transboundary distribution of crisis phenomena between countries has been built. At the first level of the scheme for dividing countries into separate groups according to types of reaction to crisis phenomena, it was proposed to cluster them using self-organizing maps. At the second level of the scheme it was decided to use a perceptron-type neural network to predict the effects of crisis transfers.
The System of Indicators of the Financial Stability of the Local Budget as a Component of the Assessment of the Competitive Immunity of the Region
(State Higher Educational Institution «Ukrainian State University of Chemical Technology», 2022) Strelchenko I.I.; Pysarkova V.R.
The article examines the essence of competitive immunity and gives the main stages of evaluating the competitive immunity of the region. There are three blocks for assessing the competitive immunity of the region: information and digital approach; information and digital technologies; value and reputation management. In accordance with the selected blocks, the objects of management influence necessary for assessing the competitive immunity of the region and bringing it to sustainable functioning are defined, namely: production sustainability, financial sustainability, socio-economic sustainability, informational and psychological sustainability, market sustainability, sustainable innovative development, growth of business value, balanced innovative infrastructure and reputation of the region. For one of the important objects of managerial influence, namely, financial stability, a system of indicators of a comprehensive analysis of the financial stability of the local budget as a component of competitive immunity is proposed, which should be considered in three groups: analysis of the balance of the local budget, analysis of financial stability and analysis of budget efficiency. The proposed ratio complex consists of twelve indicators, namely: coefficient of budget coverage, coefficient of budget sustainability, coefficient of general tax stability, coefficient of cost coverage by interbudgetary transfers, coefficient of budget dependence, coefficient of tax independence, coefficient of stability of the income base, the share of equalization grants in the total amount of transfers, local budget deficit ratio, coefficient of budgetary efficiency, coefficient of budgetary support, indicator of stability of the revenue part of the budget. The essence and normative values of the proposed indicators were considered. Within the framework of the proposed approach, the components of the integral indicator of the financial stability of the local budget are considered. The essence and algorithm of the work of Kohonen’s neural networks with the aim of its further use for the segmentation of regions based on indicators of financial stability of regions are given.
The system of the indicators of financial stability of the local budget as component of the assessment of the competitive immunity of the region.
(Ukrainian State University of Chemistry and Technology, 2022) Strelchenko I.I.; Pysarkova V.R.
The article examines the essence of competitive immunity and gives the main stages of evaluating the competitive immunity of the region. There are three blocks for assessing thecompetitive immunity of the region: information and digital approach; information and digital technologies; value and reputation management. In accordance with the selected blocks, the objects of management influence necessary for assessing the competitive immunity of the region and bringing it to sustainable functioning are defined, namely: production sustainability, financial sustainability, socio-economic sustainability, informational and psychological sustainability, market sustainability, sustainable innovative development, growth of business value, balanced innovative infrastructure and reputation of the region. For one of the important objects of managerial influence, namely, financial stability, a system of indicators of a comprehensive analysis of the financial stability of the local budget as a component of competitive immunity is proposed, which should be considered in three groups: analysis of the balance of the local budget, analysis of financial stability and analysis of budget efficiency. The proposed ratio complex consists of twelve indicators, namely: coefficient of budget coverage, coefficient of budget sustainability, coefficient of general tax stability, coefficient of cost coverage by interbudgetary transfers, coefficient of budget dependence, coefficient of tax independence, coefficient of stability of the income base, the share of equalization grants in the total amount of transfers, local budget deficit ratio, coefficient of budgetary efficiency, coefficient of budgetary support, indicator of stability of the revenue part of the budget. The essence and normative values of the proposed indicators were considered. Within the framework of the proposed approach, the components of the integral indicator of the financial stability of the local budget are considered. The essence and algorithm of the work of Kohonen’s neural networks with the aim of its further use for the segmentation of regions based on indicators of financial stability of regions are given.
The Use of Non-Parametric Criteria for the Evaluation of Similar Patterns in the Behaviour of the Economic System
(Polgári szemle, 2017) Strelchenko I.I.
The statistics made by the International Monetary Fund of a sample of 30 countries analysed to assess the degree of synchronicity of changes under the impact of the crisis on macroeconomic indicators such as increase in: GDP, the exchange rate of the national currency; a country’s international investment position (which characterizes the external liabilities of residents to non-residents); foreign exchange reserves; the value of government bonds. In order to quantify the changes observed, the values of the Kendall concordance coefficient were calculated for equal periods of time – in the crisis and post-crisis periods.
Using cluster analysis to assess financial stability as an object of manageriaimpact of regional competitive immunity
(2022) Strelchenko I.I.; Koczar J.; Pysarkova V.
The main aspect in the study of the financial stability of the local budgets of the regions as a component of the competitive immunity of the region is the search for criteria and the development of a methodology for assessing efficiency. In accordance with the accepted concept of competitive immunity, three problem-area blocks have been highlighted as a means of its evaluation: informational and digital approach; information and digital technologies; value and reputational management, which include the objects of managerial influence considered for the assessment of bringing competitive immunity to sustainable functioning. The paper examines and classifies the regions of Ukraine according to the financial stability of the local budget into three groups: regions with high financial stability, regions with medium financial stability, and regions with low financial stability. The authors undertook an applied study to assess the financial stability of the budget as an object of managerial influence at the local level. The study was conducted on the basis of the local budget indicators of all regions of Ukraine for 2018-2020. The calculation of the selected indicators was carried out on the basis of statistical data on the implementation of local budgets, reports and decisions of regional councils on the regional budget. The suggested methodological approach is the basis for assessing the budget policy and financial stability of the region as an object of the managerial influence of competitive immunity. The distribution of the original data set across clusters in the study was carried out using the business analytical platform Deductor and clustering algorithms such as the k-means and Kohonen maps. It has been established that Kohonen maps and k-means based on the Deductor business analytics platform can be used to cluster Ukrainian regions based on indicators of financial stability. The interpretation of the findings with the help of a comprehensive analysis of financial stability based on local budget data allows not only to analyze the obtained values and give a predictive assessment, but also to justify the chosen strategy for strengthening the competitive immunity of the studied region.
НЕЙРОМОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ФІНАНСОВО-ЕКОНОМІЧНОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ РЕГІОНУ
(Науковий вісник Полісся, 2018) Strelchenko I.I.; Komirna, V. V.; Arakelova, I. O.
Актуальність теми дослідження. У світлі зміни системи глобальної світової безпеки, гостро постає проблема адекватної оцінки економічної безпеки в регіональному розрізі. Існуючі методики передбачають розрахунок комплексного показника або системи показників для оцінки економічної безпеки. Натомість реалії сьогодення вимагають перегляду концептуального підходу до визначення поняття «економічна безпека», що врахує вплив процесів взаємопроникнення та інтеграції економічних систем окремих регіонів. Постановка проблеми. Постає задача пошуку та тестування нових методів щодо оцінки економічної безпеки регіонів. Аналіз останніх досліджень і публікацій. Проблематиці кількісної та якісної оцінки економічної безпеки країни присвячена значна кількість досліджень. Класичний підхід до оцінки економічної безпеки передбачає обчислення інтегрального індексу та не враховує інтеграцію окремих регіонів та країни в цілому у світові ринки. Виділення недосліджених частин загальної проблеми. Необхідність зміни кута зору на проблематику моніторингу регіональної економічної безпеки виникла у зв’язку з: збільшенням масштабів та пришвидшенням процесів глобалізації; складною геополітичною ситуацією в середині країни. Постановка завдання. Метою даного дослідження є теоретична оцінка можливості поєднання індикативного підходу та положень теорії відкритих систем до оцінки рівня економічної безпеки регіону. Викладення основного матеріалу. В роботі розроблено алгоритм використання апарату теорії нейронних мереж для оцінки економічної системи регіонів. Отримана економіко-математична модель дозволяє виконувати кластеризацію територіальних одиниць за обраними індикаторами економічної безпеки. Тестування розробленого алгоритму проведено на основі даних про стан економічного розвитку регіонів України. Висновки. Результатом моделювання стала кластерна структура, що розподілила сукупність регіонів України на чотири кластери відповідно до відібраних класифікаційних характеристик. Отримані результати мають чітку економічну інтерпретацію.

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