Financial resilience of Ukraine under the martial law
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Дата
2025-07-04
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Видавець
Alfred Nobel University
Анотація
The article analyzes scientific approaches to assessing the financial resilience of a country and highlights the diversity of studies in the selection of indicators and methodologies. Despite the significance of this issue, there is currently no universally accepted, scientifically grounded approach to evaluating the financial resilience of countries.
For Ukraine, which is under martial law, determining the level of financial resilience is of particular importance. Developing an adapted methodology for assessing financial resilience, one that takes into account macroeconomic, financial, fiscal, and foreign economic aspects, is essential for ensuring a comprehensive understanding of the country’s financial capacity to withstand external shocks.
The analysis of macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP per capita, the GDP physical volume index, and gross fixed capital formation as a share of GDP, along with unemployment and inflation, provides an overview of the overall economic context. Financial aspects, including broad money, the PFTS index, banks’ net margins, and return on assets and capital within the banking system, offer insights into the system’s ability to withstand financial shocks. Fiscal indicators – such as state budget expenditures and revenues, budget deficit, and total public debt – are essential for understanding the state’s financial resilience in managing budgetary resources. Foreign economic factors, including foreign trade, export and import dependence, gross external debt, and international reserves, assess the country’s integration into the global economy and its reliance on international factors. Thus, the integration of these diverse aspects into a single methodology allows for a comprehensive assessment of Ukraine’s financial resilience.
Accordingly, Ukraine’s Integral index of Financial Resilience (IFR) was 60% in 2021 (sufficient level), but it dropped dropped to 40% in 2022 (medium level). In 2023, the IFR began to recover and reached 50% (medium), suggesting that Ukraine has started to adapt to the war conditions that contributed to the decline in financial resilience in 2022. Despite this recovery, the IFR has not yet returned to the 2021 level, signaling that Ukraine’s economy is still impacted by factors limiting its full recovery.
The proven methodology for the integral assessment of the country’s financial resilience, as demonstrated in Ukraine’s case, is an essential analytical tool for developing strategic directions to strengthen the country’s financial capacity to withstand future shocks. An integrated approach to analyzing financial resilience helps identify vulnerabilities and threats to the country’s development. The methodology is informative, recommendatory, and explanatory. It can be utilized by authorities and academic institutions within their respective competences to assess the country’s financial resilience, enabling informed decision-making.
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Ключові слова
financial resilience, integrated assessment, macroeconomic indicators, fiscal indicators, financial indicators, indicators of foreign economic activity, shock influences, фінансова стійкість, інтегральна оцінка, макроекономічні показники, фіскальні показники, фінансові показники, показники зовнішньоекономічної діяльності, шокові впливи